Strategy Memos for Barack Obama and John McCain

Barack Obama

As of this weekend, Barack Obama's total count of state victories, popular vote, and pledged and so-called superdelegates outnumbers Clinton's, particularly in smaller more traditionally red (conservative) states. On Super Tuesday, he won Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota, and Utah. Since then, he has sailed in large part with the support of a new bloc of young voters (and African-American voters), who are turning out in unprecedented numbers. Obama's public persona and appeal, his authenticity, and his argument for change against the status quo, all lent his campaign the favorable coverage and momentum it needed to solidify victories in recent contests.

As the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, Obama will no doubt face an uphill battle against a more seasoned campaigner who has tried to go the distance before. Presumably, against John McCain, it will be hard for Obama to win any points with voters on "experience." This will fall squarely and only in John McCain's column. Then, naturally, Obama must argue for "change" and that his judgment will chart a new, more successful direction for America.

But what is this "direction?" Both Obama surrogates and critics are pondering the endgame of Obama's unifying rhetoric. Can he truly unite the country with a platform that echoes the liberal policies of Hillary Clinton's campaign on issue after issue?

As the Clinton camp might say, "Let's get real." In the coming weeks and months, if he is the nominee, Obama must prove to American voters that he is more than an enigmatic political phenom. He has to prove that he knows—and can tell the American people clearly—what changes he hopes to bring to American politics and public policy.

How can he do this? Show the American people he's ready to act before he even steps foot in the White House. Appoint a Shadow Cabinet of policymakers in both parties who will execute his foreign and domestic policy decisions and offer a breath of insight into the critical challenges facing the nation. A group with the likes of Chuck Hagel, a Nebraska Republican, Sam Nunn, a Georgia Democrat, and Mike Bloomberg, a New York Independent, among many others. (Enlisting an Independent or Republican VP nominee to balance the ticket would work too.)

In a race against John McCain, Obama will have to win undecided voters in key battleground states. By taking these steps, he will reassure any ambivalent voters that he is surrounded by the brightest thinkers on both sides of the political aisle. While President Bush took similar steps because of voters' fear of his inexperience in international affairs, Obama's bi-partisan selections would generate an enthusiastic reaction among his supporters, who see he is staying true to his rhetoric, and generate little, if any, criticism.

As far as policy is concerned, Obama will need to unveil a more innovative set of solutions, be it on economic or lobbying/ethics reform, which will demonstrate his open-mindedness on a range of traditionally liberal and conservative policy approaches. Moreover, this will establish to voters (and to those increasingly skeptical journalists), that his bi-partisan would-be Cabinet is not just a farce, but also a picture of key faces that will shape his policy. Then, the "Yes We Can" candidate would become a more believable consensus-builder, even if he remains an idealist at heart.

The most difficult challenge Obama will face is to remain the above-the-fray, authentic, straight-talking candidate and politician he promises to be. In a race against McCain, this is absolutely imperative. McCain too, by many Americans, is viewed as a bona fide straight-talker candidate who will say what he means and will mean what he says.

While he has said publicly that he will fight a "clean campaign" and that he has respect for both of his potential opponents, McCain doesn't necessarily speak for the Republican National Committee or any number of 527-advocacy groups, which could aim to attack Obama through vicious, racially-bent tactics. Even if the racist impulses of those within or outside of the McCain camp or the RNC implode on Obama's campaign, he will have to keep his cool, condemn the attacks as destructive and juvenile (part of the old kind of politics), and move on to the substance of real campaign issues (part of the new kind of politics).

John McCain

John McCain, who was called "dead" by the mainstream media during the summer, is now the presumptive Republican nominee after his huge victories on Super Tuesday in big states like Illinois, New York, and California (as well as wins in the northeastern contests of Delaware, Connecticut, and New Jersey). Only several weeks ago, the Republican race was in disarray, with four or five leading contenders for the nomination, including McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson.

The conventional wisdom at the time—after a Huckabee win in Iowa, a McCain win in New Hampshire, and a Romney win in Michigan—was that the Party was on its way to a deadlocked convention in July. We've essentially seen a 180-degree reversal, as this now resembles the indecision in the Democratic race between Clinton and Obama. Hence, the tactical and fundraising advantage that the Democrats hoped to assume while the Republicans skirmished has disappeared. Now many Republicans are rejoicing.

Since Romney's post-Super Tuesday withdrawal from the race, McCain has been crowned the leader of the Grand Old Party, much to the chagrin of right-wing talk radio's Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and Sean Hannity, who would like to disown him as their party's nominee. Limbaugh recently labeled McCain in line with Governor Arnold Schwazengger as a "big-spending, socialist health care, eco-extreme" politician. However, Republicans like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and President Bush are urging GOP forces to unite around McCain's presidential bid despite his center-right leanings on certain issues.

In the run-up to the Republican National Convention, McCain will have to chart his unique course for the general election campaign—will he appeal to America's more moderate/centrist instincts that are craving a spirit of bi-partisanship? Or will he continue to pander to the right to win over Republican defectors who argue he isn't conservative enough to be the party's nominee? This is obviously a question that remains to be answered. But it's clear that he needs to have a coherent message and cannot vacillate between trying to appease middle-of-the-road Reagan Democrats (if there still are such creatures) and the right-wing pontificators of talk radio.

If he has one thing going for him (it's true that he has many more than one), it's the perception that he deserves to be president of the United States after his patriotic service in Vietnam and after withstanding then-Gov. Bush's hack-job in South Carolina in the 2000 GOP primary. It's also the impression—among all Americans and young people, specifically—that John McCain is the real McCoy, whose authenticity is believable in a world of scheming, corrupt politicians. He will stand by his own convictions regardless of the political cost, the argument goes.

This decision—whether to run a unity campaign across America or to win over conservative Southern strongholds—rests largely in the choice for his Vice President. Will he turn to the right, to the left, or to the center when selecting his running mate? If we go by what is so favorable and all-encompassing about his appeal, the winning choice is probably to galvanize independents and run a national campaign with a VP candidate like Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman behind him (who agrees with him on the central issue of America's future policy in Iraq).

On the other hand, as Washington Post columnist Colbert King recently proposed, he could instead take the route to the right and pick a candidate like Kay Bailey Hutchinson, a reliable conservative senator from Texas. This depends in part on who the Democratic nominee is. If it is Clinton, McCain seems more likely to court Independent voters who often snub the former First Lady in polls. However, if it's Obama, will McCain want to compete against a candidate who is equally (if not more) the bi-partisan preacher and has attracted huge independent appeal in crossover primary states?

It seems that McCain will have to compete with Obama for the all-important Independent vote since it's unlikely he will ever be stamped with clear approval by the Christian right. This suggests that his maverick appeal would be the thrust of his campaign message (and the crux of his thesis to potential voters). In either case, a more moderate VP might be the right choice for McCain, contrary to conventional wisdom.