If nominated, will Obama or McCain win the Bloomberg VP Stakes?

Several weeks ago, New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg publicly rejected the ongoing speculation that he might enter the national political ring as an Independent candidate for president in 2008. On The New York Times op-ed page, Bloomberg once and for all declared his intention not to run for president after months of consideration.

"While I have always said I am not running for president, the race is too important to sit on the sidelines, and so I have changed my mind in one area," Bloomberg wrote. "If a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach—and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy—I'll join others in helping that candidate win the White House."

As the Times reported in a political memo following the Mayor's op-ed, "... he clearly yearns for a prominent role ... Moreover, Mr. Bloomberg's greatest strengths as a candidate are personal: His own accomplishments as mayor, his aura of independence, his quirky candor and his reputation for probity in government."

In the days since his announcement, many in the press and political world are contemplating how his non-candidacy will impact the election, as the mayor pledges still to influence the direction of the race by focusing on effective bipartisan leadership on the central issues critical to all Americans. But aptly positioned with an arsenal of professional triumphs in both private and public sectors and a personal war chest well prepared for a multimillion-dollar presidential campaign, why did Bloomberg and his aides ultimately conclude that his own candidacy would be ill-fated?

His appeal as a truth-telling, maverick non-partisan candidate, one who would aim to bridge formidable party and ideological divides, resembles the appeal of remaining major party front-runners—enough that an Independent bid might prove futile. Both John McCain and Barack Obama have already demonstrated their intention to be upfront with the American people on the campaign trail. Both are perceived to have an authenticity of character that most Americans—young undecided voters in particular—tend to favor over more partisan animals. In other words, Bloomberg is joining a race already full of like-tempered candidates, making it difficult to fill the void any Independent Party candidate must.

While this primary season has at times seemed like a panderfest to no end, be it to the interests of unions or of the Federalist Society, now the presumptive nominees have the opportunity to level with every American voter and to fight for support among undecided Democrats and Republicans as well as Independent voters. In fact, opportunity is the wrong word: it is a necessity.

In a McCain-Obama match-up, the candidates must win over the heart and soul of American middle-ground centrist voters. In 2008 all signs point to a new political vocabulary: Reagan Democrats will turn obsolete, while McCain Democrats and Obama Republicans will evolve. They already have.

Not only can one dispose of archaic terminology like "Reagan Democrats," the appeals of McCain and Obama, which have proven to extend beyond traditional conservative and liberal strongholds, suggest an upside-down new electoral map in which the candidates must appeal to middle-of-the-road voters in California as well as Missouri, and to fight for every state. Whether McCain Democrats or Obama Republicans triumph, in either case, we return to this fact: McCain and Obama will ultimately fight for no other than Michael Bloomberg.

And the Mayor is clearly staking his ground as the all-important uncommitted voter, loyal to neither major party. Kevin Sheekey, deputy mayor of New York and Bloomberg's chief political strategist, recently told NY1 television news, "I think the mayor is the ultimate swing voter. He is someone who the country is looking at to find out where they will go."

If analyses of the 2000 and 2004 general election campaigns suggest anything, it's the slim margin by which George W. Bush won by reeling in support from last-minute predominantly uncommitted voters. So that charting an actual general election campaign—rather than continuing to cater to liberal or conservative constituencies with party-charged rhetoric—is a must for any winning candidate.

It's now up to the candidates to recognize the power of Bloomberg and his undecided brigade. The candidates must turn the corner from party orgies to appeal in rhetoric as well as policy to all Americans. They must overcome their need to gratify the party establishment and to galvanize the base, be it Evangelical Christian or African-American voters.

These are the first steps to win Bloomberg's support.

Josh Greenman of the New York Daily News editorial board commented that, "Bloomberg is uniquely positioned to complement Obama's strengths and compensate for his weaknesses."

But Obama isn't the only candidate without substantial executive experience, business expertise, a natural independent streak as a Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Independent, and dozens of bipartisan initiatives. McCain too lacks these credentials.

It's true that Obama and McCain are two different beasts, and that next to John McCain's longtime congressional service, the junior senator from Illinois seems as wee as his title. But both candidates would benefit enormously from Bloomberg's presence on the ticket. Both candidates are searching for reliable, tested, physically fit, appropriately aged leader who will deepen confidence in a ticket led either by a youthful 47 year-old or a more senior candidate at 71.

Strategically, if these candidates hope to channel real unifying rhetoric and solutions, as this writer feels they must, including a non-party man like Bloomberg on their ticket would be an invaluable asset. Bloomberg's tremendous personal wealth would help enormously, as well.

We might recall the foresight of one of the legends of The New York Times opinion pages. For his annual "Office Pool" of 2008 predictions, William Safire, a former NYT op-ed columnist, suggested—perhaps whimsically, perhaps seriously—that a certain senior Arizona senator would rise from the dead to win the Republican nomination and would tap a certain New York City mayor as his VP: a McCain/Bloomberg ticket. This insight underscores the importance of garnering Bloomberg's support, if not as a VP, then as a stalwart campaign supporter on the trail this fall. Safire asked us to "lose this list" of his new year pool; let's keep it for the moment.