Giuliani Fighting for Florida

SARASOTA, Fla. - Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-N.Y.) visited Mel's Diner in Sarasota, Fla. the night of Monday, Jan. 14 as part of an ongoing effort to woo voters in the Sunshine State.

Standing on a chair, Giuliani strained to be heard over a crowd that had been waiting nearly two hours to see him. The weariness in his face was offset only by the Floridian brightness of his coral tie.

After 44 days of campaigning across the state in his bus decorated with a "Florida is Rudy Country" sign, it was just another day — just another 15-minute stop to pinch cheeks, shake hands and give the meat and potatoes of his message on the economy and border security.

"Voting started today, and I need your vote," Giuliani said to a packed crowd of about 300, many of whom were relocated New Yorkers still loyal to their former mayor. "Florida is going to be an important state — Florida is going to count."

It's a fact the Giuliani campaign knows all too well with Florida's Jan. 29 primary fast approaching and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) pulling ahead in the polls.

Giuliani has long been banking on winning Florida, having pooled almost his entire $7 million primaries budget into the state, while his opponents are spreading their resources among Michigan, South Carolina, Nevada and Maine.

Guiliani's campaign says the strategy is just that, not a retreat from other states with early primaries.

"The reality is as these primaries played out, certain people were very strong in some, and you had to look for the opportunity where you had the best chance to demonstrate your strength," Giuliani told Fox News on Jan. 13. "And it turned out that the analysis was that Florida was the best place for us to do it."

The theory is that as long as Giuliani wins Florida, that momentum will be enough to carry him through the flood of 22 state primaries on "Super Tuesday," Feb. 5, just as Florida carried Bush in 2004. But a loss in Florida may be detrimental to the campaign, according to David Garofalo, national co-chair of Firefighters for Rudy.

"I think it would be devastating if we didn't win here, because we've tried so hard here and we have such a good base here," Garofalo said. "If he uses all his resources in this one state and then loses, the media will have a field day with that."

But what once looked like a stronghold for Giuliani in Florida now seems to be slipping. In a Quinnipiac University poll released Jan. 14, Giuliani has the support of 20 percent of likely Florida primary voters, while McCain has 22 percent. Former Govs. Mike Huckabee (Ark.) and Mitt Romney (Mass.) are close behind with 19 percent each.

Still, as the country learned from the New Hampshire primaries, nothing is certain until the votes are in — Giuliani's campaign is acting on this notion at events like the one at Mel's Diner, distributing lists of voting sites to encourage early voting.

A television over the bar was set on CNN, and a hopeful statistic flashed across the screen: 61 percent of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided.

"That's good news," said Ray Holderman, 74, who worked for the New York City Housing Authority during Giuliani's mayoralty and retired to Sarasota in 2004. "I’ve seen this man turn the city around — windows stopped breaking, squeegee men disappeared." Holderman paused to adjust his stars-and-stripes ball cap. "I really feel in my heart that he’ll do the same thing for the United States."

Whether enough of Florida agrees with Holderman about Giuliani's potential may depend, as it did in Iowa and New Hampshire, on the youth vote. But the crowd at Mel's was almost — if not completely — void of anyone between the ages of 18 and 25. In fact, most were over 60, and while this is at least in part a reflection of Sarasota's population at large, it also mirrors the polls.

According to a recent MySpace vote of more than 150,000 people — presumably younger voters — Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) has overwhelming support among young Republican voters with 36 percent versus Giuliani's 18 percent. Paul also leads on Facebook.

Still, the lack of youth support is an issue that the Giuliani campaign does not seem to be pursuing as ardently as the grassroots-heavy Paul or the rock star-like Huckabee.

"The youth vote is a very big concern, and at the end of the day, we’re going to bring out the youth vote on the Republican side," Garofalo said. "One of the reasons is the name recognition from 9-11."

Just how long that name recognition will hold clout, for young voters and otherwise, remains to be seen. Meanwhile Giuliani is doing all he can. As he finished the rounds at Mel's Diner, he headed through the crowd of smiling faces to get back on the bus for another stop, Tucson's Southwest Grill in Clearwater. A pair of elderly women sitting at a booth by the window perked up as they watched him leave and one glanced at CNN before leaning toward the other to offer her two cents: "He's the one we can trust."