The Gentlemen and their Vices

Like many other political commentators, I'm getting bored of these primaries, so I'm going to start speculating instead on who Barack Obama and John McCain are going to pick to be their running mates. That is of course assuming that Obama wins the primary, and that McCain isn't assassinated by a Huckabee supporter.

Picking a vice president is risky business. Jack Kennedy picked Lyndon Johnson, and we all know Kennedy's fate. In just as big of a disaster, George Bush Sr. went hunting for a running mate in 1988 and returned carrying Dan Quayle in a bag. Fellow Sen. John McCain famously quipped about Quayle, "I can't believe a guy that handsome wouldn't have some impact."

As it turned out, the Indiana senator turned out to be something of a liability, nay, an object of general ridicule. Sen. John Kerry famously joked that "if Bush is assassinated, the secret service have orders to shoot Dan Quayle." Kerry later apologized, by driving his carriage to Indiana and throwing a coin at Quayle's family, but Quayle continued to be mocked right until his last days in politics.

Hoping to avoid the mistake of his father, George W. Bush picked someone in 2000 who nobody made jokes about - Dick Cheney. When the new administration took office, he faced the opposite problem: Cheney was so much of a heavyweight that people began speculating that he was really the one running everything, possibly from some type of underground lair. In Cheney's shadow, 'Dubya' looked little like he was on Quayludes.

So the candidates must tread carefully as they make their selection. There is no such thing as a soulmate. Rather than boring you with my personal predictions, I've turned to Rasmussen Markets [LINK TO: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/], a Web site that runs a trading market for political futures - substituting individual predictions for the collective wisdom of mass delusions.

Here's who the market predicts are the most likely running mates -

For John McCain -

1. If McCain is looking for a square-jawed fellow handsome enough to "have some impact," his top choice, according to the market, is Mitt Romney. Romney's MBA from Harvard reduces the risk created by McCain's swashbuckling disdain for economics in a looming recession, and his appeal to the McCain-hating wing of the Party could work wonders for Republican unity in the fall.

Then again, Bush loyalists from the Christian Right who aren't too keen on McCain won't be impressed by the fact that Romney spent two years of his life trying his darndest to convert Christians to the Book of Mormon. Also, rumor has it that McCain isn't impressed by Romney's character, after Romney made several ideological U-turns just in time to run for the Oval Office. Let's see who else is on the list.

2. The market's top choice among today's promising batch of blooming right-wing Governors is Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. Pawlenty is in his 40s, which presumably cancels out the fact that McCain is in his 70s. He's also a man of the people: the son of a truck driver, he began his political career on a suburban city council, before rising to become governor.

Minnesota voted Democratic by a very narrow margin in 2004, and both the presidential and U.S. Senate election there (pitting Republican incumbent Norm Coleman against Democratic comedian Al Franken) are likely to be highly competitive - raising the prospect that Pawlenty could swing both. Pawlenty is also a tax-cutter and a staunch opponent of illegal immigration, meaning he could help try to unify and mobilize a divided and dispirited GOP behind a populist theme of "no more taxes" and "no more Mexicans." Yeehaw.

3. A woman. The most likely female candidates, according to the market, are Condoleezza Rice and Kay Bailey Hutchison. Rice's poll-defying performance in the Bush administration has fueled Washington chat for some time, but she has stubbornly insisted that she wants to retire. If this changes, then the game changes, but for now it's probably safe to count her out.

Hutchison, meanwhile, is an unsafe choice both because she is moderate on abortion (meaning lots of conservatives would be likely to stay home instead of voting for a McCain-Hutchison ticket), and because she is from Texas (the "Texan President rule" states that one must wait for at least one election after the end of a failed military adventure launched by a Texan, before introducing another one of them into the White House). More generally, if McCain picked a woman, people would realize that he's only doing it to try to get even with the Democrats, who have a woman and a black man running. The last thing you want when you're campaigning for president is to put yourself on the defensive.

What about Obama? Here's who the market is speculating will be chosen -

For Barack Obama -

1. Bill Richardson. Richardson made himself an obvious choice with his vocal and perfectly timed endorsement of Obama, which came right in the middle of the campaign's biggest crisis (when the Rev. Wright's anti-American tirades on the pulpit went public). Before that, the governor had successfully raised his political profile by running for president, but dropping out early enough to avoid any ridicule or nastiness.

However, he was an obvious choice even before joining the race. One of Obama's key weaknesses in the primary is his lack of support among Hispanics. With Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado looming as important swing states in November, Obama can't afford for Hispanic voters to stay home.

Richardson is, like Obama, the son of parents from two different cultures. Three out of his four grandparents are Mexican, hew speaks fluent English and Spanish, and he is a highly popular governor of a bilingual border state. Apart from being highly competitive in the general election, New Mexico is holding a competitive U.S. Senate race beteen Albuquerque Republican Heather Wilson and Santa Fe Democrat Tom Udall. Neighboring Colorado, where the Democrats are having their national convention, has another Democrat named Udall running for U.S. Senate, and counting on Hispanics.

Richardson on the ticket could very easily swing three states and two U.S. Senate seats into the Democratic column, and few candidates for running mate can boast so many strategic ties in an election year. To top things off, Richardson has extensive diplomatic experience from the Clinton administration, which would help reduce Obama's image as a foreign policy lightweight. He buttresses Obama's weaknesses and highlights his strengths, a rare combination for a running mate. The markets pick him as Obama's most likely choice.

2. A tough white guy. The top candidates in this category are Jim Webb and Wes Clark. Webb is a burly veteran who served in Reagan's cabinet, and narrowly beat an incumbent in Republican Virginia to hand the Democrats control of the U.S. Senate.

His military background would reduce the "Obambi" problem and help allay questions about Obama's patriotism, while his experience under Reagan and lack of political baggage would make it easier to reach across to the Republicans in passing legislation (something the Democratic Congress has been having a tough time doing).

Wes Clark, meanwhile, is a retired four-star General who is also a recent convert to the Democratic hope float. He fits in the same categories as Webb - military background, extensive foreign policy experience, and a strong appeal to white male voters. Clark comes with one additional advantage - the Democrats wouldn't have to vacate a vulnerable U.S. Senate seat to invite him to the White House.

Having either Webb or Clark on the ticket would strengthen Obama's campaign in industrial, unionized areas where he has been weak in the primary in important swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. It would also go a long way to counter McCain's one-dimensional campaign, which is based so heavily on his tough guy/patriot image.

3. An old face from the Clinton Administration. The markets are buzzing with speculation that Al Gore or Hillary Clinton might end up as Obama's running mate. Regarding Hillary, this "Party unity" choice is unlikely for many reasons - the lingering bitterness from her and her husband's dirty campaign, the heavy baggage that two Clintons would carry with them into an Obama administration, and just generally because Obama's message has been about a break from the past, not a continuation of it.

Concerning Gore, there's no constitutional prohibition against it, but it would still be pretty ridiculous for the same man to occupy the office of vice president in two Democratic administrations in a row. Given his extensive activism against global warming, Gore would be a much stronger candidate for Energy Secretary, and he would raise the profile of the office.

Taken together, these nine candidates - four Republicans and five Democrats - are the only ones that have registered above the five percent radar on Rasmussen's online vice presidential prediction market. However, predicting running mates can be like trying to guess which needle someone is going to pick out of a haystack. The prediction markets don't give more than a 50 percent chance that any of the names on this list will be chosen. Obama may still find a half-Native American, half-Asian woman somewhere, and McCain might just go with his gut and nominate Colonel Kurtz.

Sometime this summer, we'll see a puff of white smoke coming out of Obama and McCain headquarters, and the bumper stickers will hit the plastic presses.